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A YouGov surveyof swing states has found that President Joe Biden faces "long odds" for getting re-elected: "He trails in all seven states, six of which he won in 2020 — a significant decline from his position in those states in March."
- The survey supports a string of recent swing state polling, most recently from the NYT/Siena College yesterday, showing that Trump is bolstering a lead in the battleground states.
- YouGov notes: "Voters themselves think that Biden is in trouble. In none of the states did more voters think Biden was more likely to win than Trump."
- The report adds: "The positive news for Democrats in the poll is the performance of their Senate candidates in the same states. There are Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin this year... And in each state the Democratic candidate is running ahead of Biden, while leading their Republican opponent by a margin of at least 7 points."
- The outperformance by down-ballot Democrats may add credence to an argument that the Democrat agenda is broadly popular, with voters primarily rejecting Biden.
- Axios noted on June 23 another potential problem for the White House: "It's hard to argue that polling is fundamentally broken — or unfairly skewed against Democrats — if multiple surveys show Democratic candidates maintaining persistent leads in toss-up states as Biden lags in them."
Figure 1: 2024 Swing State Polling
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