Big Beat

NZD/USD slipped early doors, but has recouped losses after the release of better than expected quarterly retail sales out of New Zealand (expanded 28.0% Q/Q vs. exp. of a 19.0% growth). Stats NZ noted that the report showed the largest September quarter increase in retail sales on record, but "it does not make up for the historic fall of 15% in the COVID-19-affected June 2020 quarter".

• Asked about robust housing prices, PM Ardern expressed concern over the situation of first-home buyers, while noting that the requirement that the RBNZ takes unemployment into consideration "is potentially creating or exacerbating another problem". She also pushed back against suggestions that she might introduce a capital gains tax "through the back door", reiterating her pledge not to enact the measure.
• The rate sits +14 pips at $0.6943 as we type. A break above Nov 20 high of $0.6951 is needed to signal that bulls remain in the driving seat and open up Dec 4, 2018 high of $0.6970. Conversely, a fall through Nov 17 & 18 lows of $0.6876 would turn bearish focus to Nov 13 low of $0.6811.
• On Thursday, the RBNZ will release its Financial Stability Report, which will be followed by a press conference with Gov Orr. Elsewhere, New Zealand's trade balance comes out Thursday, with ANZ Consumer Confidence due Friday.