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Big week for UK data

  • Tomorrow will see labour market data released. The headline unemployment numbers will only cover the 3-month period to the end of September but there will be too things worth watching in this release.
    • First, we will receive the experimental HMRC payroll data for October – this should give us the best view yet of the state of the labour market post-furlough. So far survey data has pointed to only marginal increases in redundancies after the programme ended, the HMRC payroll data should be able to substantiate this.
    • Second, underlying wage growth: this has been picking up in recent months and given the importance of underlying wage growth to the medium-term inflationary picture this data will be crucial.
  • CPI data on Wednesday is expected to show a pickup to 3.9%Y/Y in November (from 3,1%Y/Y in October) with the Bloomberg survey pointing to two-way risks. This data will be closely watched by markets but is likely to have less impact than the labour market data due Tuesday.
  • Friday will see the release of consumer confidence data overnight and retail sales and public finance data in the morning. Retail sales data remains fairly volatile but will give us the best insight into the state of the consumer in October but public finance data is likely to be ignored by markets.

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