Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
$-Bloc STIR markets have softened over the past week.
- Overnight, near-term Fed Funds implied rates reversed most of the hit from the softer US data but are down notably on pre-JOLTS levels. They show +3bp for Sept and a cumulative +13bp for Nov to 5.45% terminal, down 5.5bp from pre-JOLTS levels. Cuts from the terminal are seen at 52bp to Jun’24 and 121bp to Dec’24.
- In the US, the focus now turns to the release of the July PCE deflator, MNI Chicago PMI and weekly Jobless Claims data later today, along with Fedspeak from Bostic and Collins. Non-Farm Payrolls are due for release on Friday.
- Yesterday’s surprisingly low AU CPI monthly data for July saw investors dial back expectations of further interest rate rises and sharpened the probability of rate cuts.
Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR: Terminal Rate Expectations & June’24 Pricing
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok