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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
STIR markets within the $-bloc are set for a pronounced easing cycle in 2024, propelled by the dovish stance maintained by the Fed in yesterday's decision. The US, Canada, and NZ are all indicating expectations for at least a 100bp reduction in policy rates.
- In the press conference, Chair Powell delivered little to no pushback to market expectations of significant rate cuts next year, and in fact, ensured that future easing was the main topic of the day. Whereas in previous press conferences, he has dismissed questions about rate cut speculation out of hand, he entertained several of them today.
- His commentary and tone seemed at odds with his final speech before the FOMC blackout: "It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when the policy might ease."
- The Dot Plot pointed to a 2024 median of 75bp of rate cuts, a sharper pace than indicated in September’s projections, with reductions expected by 17 of 19 members.
- Nov’24 expectations and the cumulative easing across the $-bloc stand at: 3.89%, -145bps (FOMC); 3.78%, -122bps (BOC); 3.79%, -53bps (RBA); and 4.50%, -100bps (RBNZ).
Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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