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BMO: Door For Further Tightening Is Quite High

CANADA
  • BMO note that while policymakers haven't shut the door on more hikes, the bar for further tightening is quite high.
  • It looks like a March move is off the table barring some wild data. The April policy decision will be more definitive as we'll have a few employment and CPI reports by then.
  • Forecasts: No big surprises with the 2023 growth forecast raised a tick to 1% and 2024 trimmed 2 ticks to 1.8%, and more optimistic than BMO's call, whilst BMO's inflation forecast is a bit more cautious, but not too far above the BoC.
  • BMO's base case remains that the BoC is on hold through the rest of 2023.
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  • BMO note that while policymakers haven't shut the door on more hikes, the bar for further tightening is quite high.
  • It looks like a March move is off the table barring some wild data. The April policy decision will be more definitive as we'll have a few employment and CPI reports by then.
  • Forecasts: No big surprises with the 2023 growth forecast raised a tick to 1% and 2024 trimmed 2 ticks to 1.8%, and more optimistic than BMO's call, whilst BMO's inflation forecast is a bit more cautious, but not too far above the BoC.
  • BMO's base case remains that the BoC is on hold through the rest of 2023.