BMO's Ian Lyngen said US Pres......>

US TSYS/RESEARCH: BMO's Ian Lyngen said US Pres. Trump's comment last night

"that "If we have to close down our government, we're building that wall," was

not the first time he has threatened to shut down the government at the end of

September if his agenda is derailed. In fact, in early May he offered a similar

observation noting that "Our country needs a good "shutdown" in September to fix

mess!" We're certainly cognizant that the budget debate can be a heated process

with strong rhetoric on both sides of nearly every issue, so we won't take

Trump's opening negotiating stance as a roadmap for the months ahead."

- But Lyngen adds that "nonetheless, it is certainly a reminder that a shutdown

is one of the options in the Congressional toolbox to force key compromises if

the debate comes down to the wire, which we expect it will regardless of whether

or not there is a shutdown." He adds that "in early August, we conducted a

client survey focused on expectations for the budget negotiations and the

probability assigned to a government shutdown was 27% on average with a range of

0% to 80%."