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US VIEW: BNP Paribas' chief market economist and head of US economics Paul
Mortimer-Lee said the Sept. 20th "FOMC statement and Janet Yellen's speech look
to signal an intention to raise rates if inflation does not again surprise on
- He adds "this is an implicit admission that the Fed is behind the curve
otherwise the FOMC would be more sensitive to the data flow than it appears to
be. Yellen's legacy may be a factor."
- He said "given data uncertainty, we are hanging on to our no change call for
rates in December, but anything other than a soft CPI number in September (out
Oct. 13th) will be the end. There is a real risk of the economy going too far
beyond potential ('overheating' in Yellen's terminology) and the result being a
recession as soft landings are tough to achieve."