April 23, 2024 14:55 GMT
BNP Results 25-Apr: All About Revenues, US Bank Reporting A Positive
FINANCIALS
BNP 1Q24 results are 25 Apr and hopefully will be better than last time around. The revenue performance is set to be key with US investment bank results being a reasonable tailwind, we feel.
- Results last time missed (on FICC revenues and capital) and the FY24 RoTE target was trimmed. However, at a conference in March, mgmt did indicate something of a more positive outlook. The bank has also announced the acquisition of Fosun’s stake in Ageas (9% for EUR730m) last week. Better markets results from the US banks last week are a reasonable tailwind into these results for BNP’s investment bank, too.
- Euro IG bank spreads are c.36bp tighter YTD (and c.4bp in the last month) whilst BNP is -28bp (and -1bp) so has lagged the peers a little. The equity was down 10% on the day at last results (1-Feb) but recovered much of that to be up 8% YTD (SX7P +12% YTD), so has legged here as well.
- Estimates for earnings have been cut 3-5% for this year and next since those results, driven by c.2% revenue cuts. Consensus does still have positive revenue trajectory for both 1Q24 (just) and FY24 and those positive US bank FICC figures could be the tailwind the bank needs here.
Results are 0600 (London time) with conf call at 1200, available at: https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/trboy8u2/
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