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BoC Decision Next Up

CANADA
  • Today’s productivity release added a second dovish data point after yesterday’s push higher in business insolvencies (which as Desjardins noted reached their highest level since comparable data began in 2007 after a marked rise in filings in January).
  • The BoC decision comes shortly at 0945ET with joint rate decision and press conference opening statements before a press conference at 1030ET (but no MPR/forecasts).
  • Preview: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/60215/BOCPreviewMar2024.pdf
  • OIS is just shy of fully pricing a first cut landing in June, with the CORH4/Z4 spread has pushed out to now 88bp of cuts.
  • USDCAD at ~1.3565 is close to the day’s lows but remains within yesterday’s range. The trend needle points north with resistance at the bull trigger of 1.3606 (Feb 28 high) which only just held early yesterday.
  • GoCs outperform Tsys on the day, with yields 3.5-4bps lower vs 1-5.3bps lower.

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