/BOC policy previews: - Scotiabank: 25Bp.....>

CANADA: /BOC policy previews:

- Scotiabank: 25Bp hike to 1.75%

- However, "communication risk is elevated as Gov. Poloz will need to balance

positive developments on trade (NAFTA/USMCA) and sentiment (Business Outlook

Survey) against weaker global growth prospects and record (CAD-bearish) oil

price differentials. If the 'gradual approach' language is retained, tightening

expectations for 2019 may moderate."

- "Trade policy developments should ... allow the BoC to remove some of the

negative forecast judgements incorporated into the July MPR."

- CIBC: 25Bp hike to 1.75%, additional 25bps hike to 2.0% in January

CIBC strikes a more cautious approach to a hike from the BoC Wednesday. "While

we agree that less trade uncertainty is unequivocally good for the economy, it

is not entirely clear - given the information we have in hand today - that is

requires the BoC to go 'that' much more." Markets are "currently looking for a

2.5% policy rate by late 2019, which we think is too high given currency

considerations and the considerable starting point for household leverage."