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BOC's Early QT Plans, No Timing Just Yet

CANADA
  • Once QT is initiated, the Bank will stop purchases and maturing government bonds will not be replaced when they roll off the balance sheet.
  • Passive: Macklem reiterated that the Bank doesn’t intend to actively sell bonds, one of the few areas of consensus amongst analysts beforehand.
  • Goldman had noted beforehand a possibility of active sales in the future because of worries about the size of its balance sheet by end-2024 but that didn’t seem to the case here: “Roughly 40% of our bond holdings mature within the next two years. This suggests that, other things being equal, our balance sheet would shrink relatively quickly”.
  • Purchases: There will certainly be no secondary market purchases. Potentially a little bit of primary purchases for operational reasons but that’s a technical decision.
  • Timing: Doesn’t appear imminent. “We have some operational decisions to take at the time we actually decide to do this [QT] and I won’t nail down all the details [now]”.
  • The next BOC policy decision is on Apr 13 with the next maturity of C$12.6B in May.

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