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Free AccessBOC's Poloz: Monetary Policy Is In Uncharted Waters
By Courtney Tower
OTTAWA (MNI) - Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said Wednesday that
"we're in uncharted waters" about where Canadian monetary policy may go next,
following two policy rate hikes in July and September.
Poloz told questioning reporters in St. John's, Newfoundland, that "nobody
really knows" the exact course the Canadian economy may take in the future
because of so many factors that are unclear or changing.
"We need to refine our understanding of the phenomena" facing Canadian
inflation and growth prospects, he said, after delivering a speech in which he
said that henceforth policy decisions by the central bank would be "particularly
data dependent."
It is not that the BOC's econometric models do not remain very important,
but there are in the economy presently "a bunch of unknowns that we just cannot
assume away." Ongoing data surrounding them had to emerge and be studied in
order to see the prospects for inflation and growth.
For the BOC now, "it's a case of feeling our way as we go along," he added.
If being "particularly data dependent" means that clear forward guidance
cannot be given to markets by the BOC, Poloz would say only that improving BOC
communications was "a subject of active discussion" but that if some were taken
aback by the last rate hike there also were many who were not surprised.
Among factors that were developing and needed careful watching, Poloz in
his speech had listed a changing output capacity of the economy, high household
debt, effects of the expanding digital economy, and slower-than-expected wage
growth.
Another was the rise of protectionism in some places and "considerable
uncertainty" for companies and forecasters as to its likely effects.
For instance, Poloz said, it is difficult for companies to plan ahead in
the face of "risks that NAFTA no longer will be there."
--MNI Ottawa Bureau; +1 613 869-0916; email: yali.ndiaye@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$C$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.