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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessBoE-Dated OIS Still Shows A Little Under 50bp Of '24 Cuts, Pill & Mann Eyed
SONIA futures are flat to +3.5, off early highs, with Bunds trading on the front foot as a dovish RBNZ outcome allows wider core global FI to rally a little.
- ~13.9K of the SFIU4/Z4 spread was blocked at -23.5 late yesterday, we would guess that was a buyer.
- BoE-dated OIS through mid ’25 meetings see dovish moves of 0.5-2.0bp. ~15bp of cuts are priced through August, with ~48bp showing through year end.
- Comments from BoE’s Pill & Mann will headline today.
- We will provide greater colour on those appearances shortly.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Aug-24 | 5.052 | -14.9 |
Sep-24 | 4.972 | -22.8 |
Nov-24 | 4.814 | -38.6 |
Dec-24 | 4.720 | -48.0 |
Feb-25 | 4.580 | -62.0 |
Mar-25 | 4.486 | -71.4 |
May-25 | 4.361 | -83.9 |
Jun-25 | 4.275 | -92.5 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.