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BOE: DMP Data Confirm Price and Wage Data Continue to Gradually Moderate

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Price and wage growth continued to moderate but the 3-month readings of moderating employment growth masked some pick ups in the single month metrics over the last couple of months. Overall, this should still be encouraging data for those on the MPC who want to cut further - but is probably broadly in line with their expectations.

  • Expected own price growth and realised own price growth continue to moderate - both on the single month and 3-month metrics. Expected price growth is now 3.6%Y/Y in the 3-months to August, 0.1ppt lower than prior, the lowest since September 2021 and down from a peak of 6.6%Y/Y in September 2022.
  • Realised price growth fell to 4.0%Y/Y in the 3-months to August, 0.3ppt below prior, and again the lowest since September 2021 (and down from a peak of 8.1%Y/Y in February 2023).
  • Expected wage growth remained at 4.1%Y/Y in the 3-months to August with the single month prints having been 4.0-4.1% for four consecutive months. This is down from a peak of 6.0% in December 2022.
  • Realised wage growth also continued to moderate to 5.8%Y/Y in the 3-months to August (remaining at 5.7%Y/Y on the single-month metric). We have not been below this level since July 2022.
  • Employment growth fell to 0.7%Y/Y in the 3-months to August from 0.9%Y/Y - the lowest since October 2021 - but actually picked up on the single month measure to 0.9%Y/Y (after 0.6%Y/Y in July and 0.5%Y/Y in June).
  • Similarly expected employment growth fell to 1.0%Y/Y in the 3-months to August from 1.1%Y/Y - the lowest since December 2020 - but again the single month metric was higher than the prior two months (at 1.2%Y/Y versus 1.0% in July and 0.8% in June).
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Price and wage growth continued to moderate but the 3-month readings of moderating employment growth masked some pick ups in the single month metrics over the last couple of months. Overall, this should still be encouraging data for those on the MPC who want to cut further - but is probably broadly in line with their expectations.

  • Expected own price growth and realised own price growth continue to moderate - both on the single month and 3-month metrics. Expected price growth is now 3.6%Y/Y in the 3-months to August, 0.1ppt lower than prior, the lowest since September 2021 and down from a peak of 6.6%Y/Y in September 2022.
  • Realised price growth fell to 4.0%Y/Y in the 3-months to August, 0.3ppt below prior, and again the lowest since September 2021 (and down from a peak of 8.1%Y/Y in February 2023).
  • Expected wage growth remained at 4.1%Y/Y in the 3-months to August with the single month prints having been 4.0-4.1% for four consecutive months. This is down from a peak of 6.0% in December 2022.
  • Realised wage growth also continued to moderate to 5.8%Y/Y in the 3-months to August (remaining at 5.7%Y/Y on the single-month metric). We have not been below this level since July 2022.
  • Employment growth fell to 0.7%Y/Y in the 3-months to August from 0.9%Y/Y - the lowest since October 2021 - but actually picked up on the single month measure to 0.9%Y/Y (after 0.6%Y/Y in July and 0.5%Y/Y in June).
  • Similarly expected employment growth fell to 1.0%Y/Y in the 3-months to August from 1.1%Y/Y - the lowest since December 2020 - but again the single month metric was higher than the prior two months (at 1.2%Y/Y versus 1.0% in July and 0.8% in June).