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BoE OIS Leans Into Hike Later Today

STIR

BoE-dated OIS continues to lean towards the idea of a hike at midday, showing ~14bp of tightening

  • Terminal policy rate pricing shows a little above 5.50% as participants remain reluctant to meaningfully price anything above 1 further total hike in the current cycle in the wake of yesterday’s soft UK CPI data.
  • A quick reminder that 52/57 surveyed by BBG look for a hike, although many of those views now are heavily caveated.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Sep-235.326+14.1
Nov-235.392+20.7
Dec-235.434+24.9
Feb-245.447+26.2
Mar-245.435+25.0
May-245.397+21.2
Jun-245.344+15.9
Aug-245.256+7.1
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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