MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bullish GBPUSD Theme Remains Intact

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – Bullish GBPUSD Theme Remains Intact

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and Friday’s gains reinforce this set-up. Resistance at 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move higher last  week confirmed a recent bull flag formation. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week. Attention is on resistance at 5039.84, the 61.8% retracement of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off. It was pierced Friday, a clear break of it would be a positive development and suggest scope for an extension of the bull cycle.
• GBPUSD traded higher Friday and a bullish theme remains intact. Gains last week undermine a recent bearish theme and resistance at 1.2740, the Jun 19 high, has been cleared. The move through this hurdle signals scope for a climb towards 1.2860. The trend in USDJPY remains bullish and the latest move down is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a rising trend. The recent breach of 160.17, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. A bull mode in AUDUSD remains intact following last week’s gains. A key short-term resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high, has been cleared. The move higher highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. 
• Gold traded higher last week and the yellow metal has traded through resistance at $2387.8, the Jun 7 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and a clear break would be a bullish development and open the key resistance at $2450.1. A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme.
• Bund futures are in consolidation mode. A bear threat remains present and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The move lower last week undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Gilt futures traded higher last week. Despite these gains, the short-term outlook remains bearish. The sell-off from Jun 21, signals scope for a continuation near-term towards 96.25, a Fibonacci retracement, where a break would further strengthen a bearish threat.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play          

• RES 4: 1.0943 High Jan 21  
• RES 3: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.0852 High Jun 12 
• RES 1: 1.0843 High Jul 05
• PRICE: 1.0828 @ 05:44 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 1.0763/10 20-day EMA / Low Jul 2   
• SUP 2: 1.0666 Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0650 Low May 1
• SUP 4: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support 

A bullish theme in EURUSD remains in play and price is trading closer to its recent highs. The move last week above 1.0775, the 50-day EMA, undermines the recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for further gains with the focus on 1.0852 next, the Jun 12 high. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 1.0666, Jun 26 low. Initial support to watch lies at 1.0763, the 20-day EMA. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Recovery Intact       

• RES 4: 1.2947 1.50 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing   
• RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2819/2860 Intraday high / High Jun 12 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.2814 @ 05:59 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 1.2707/2681 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2613 Low Jun 27
• SUP 3: 1.2584 Low May 15
• SUP 4: 1.2514 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jun 12 bull cycle    

GBPUSD traded higher Friday and a bullish theme remains intact. Gains last week undermine a recent bearish theme and resistance at 1.2740, the Jun 19 high, has been cleared. The move through this hurdle signals scope for a climb towards 1.2860, the Jun 12 high and the next important resistance. Key support lies at 1.2613, the Jun 27 low. A break of it is required to resume the recent bear leg. First support lies at 1.707, the 20-day EMA.   

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook                        

• RES 4: 0.8586 76.4% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.8568 High May 20
• RES 2: 0.8552 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8497/99 50-day EMA / High Jul 1  
• PRICE: 0.8450 @ 07:28 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 0.8431 Low Jun 25    
• SUP 2: 0.8397 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing 

EURGBP is starting the week on a bearish note as it extends the move lower that started Jul 1. A key resistance at 0.8497, the 50-day EMA, remains intact A clear breach of it is required to undermine the current bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. Gains since Jun 14 appear to be a correction. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8431, the Jun 25 low. A breach of this support would open 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and bear trigger.   

USDJPY TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective   

• RES 4: 163.96 2.0% 10-dma envelope      
• RES 3: 163.36 2.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 162.21 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 161.95 High Jul 3
• PRICE: 160.62 @ 06:47 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 159.63 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 157.73 Trendline support drawn from Dec 28 low  
• SUP 3: 157.50 /154.55 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4 
• SUP 4: 153.60 Low May 16

The trend in USDJPY remains bullish and the latest move down is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a rising trend. The recent breach of 160.17, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and this maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 162.21, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 159.72.  

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 176.31 2.0% 10-dma envelope 
• RES 3: 175.40 1.50 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 174.77 1.382 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing  
• RES 1: 174.52 High Jul 03
• PRICE: 173.77 @ 07:05 BST Jul 08
• SUP 1: 173.09 Low Jul 2 / 1 
• SUP 2: 171.80 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 169.6/167.53 Trendline from the Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Jun 14 
• SUP 4: 167.33 Low May 16 

The EURJPY trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforce the bullish theme. The recent break of a key resistance and bull trigger at 171.56, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, and this highlights a clear rising trend. Sights are on 174.77, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at 171.80, the 20-day EMA.     

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish      

• RES 4: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 0.6839 High Jan 2                 
• RES 2:  0.6771 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 0.6761 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 0.6742 @ 08:02 BST Jul 08
• SUP 1: 0.6668 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6635 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6558 Low May 8

A bull mode in AUDUSD remains intact following last week’s gains. A key short-term resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high, has been cleared. The move higher highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. A continuation higher would open 0.6771 next, the Jan 3 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6635, the 50-day EMA.   

USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Stays Intact For Now                 

• RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 2: 1.3755/3792 High Jul 2 / High Jun 11
• RES 1: 1.3674 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3644 @ 08:09 BST Jul 8 
• SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and a key support
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4 

A short-term bearish threat in USDCAD remains in place. The pair has recently breached the 50-day EMA - currently at 1.3674. This reinforces a bearish condition and exposes 1.3590, the May 16 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would highlight an important technical break. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3755, the Jul 2 high. A break of this level would be bullish. Note that the medium-term trend signal remains bullish - for now. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Bear Threat Remains Present                                     

• RES 4: 133.21 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger          
• RES 3: 132.80 High Jun 25 
• RES 2: 132.24 High Jun 28  
• RES 1: 131.60 50-day EMA                    
• PRICE: 130.94 @ 05:20 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 130.28/23 76.4% of May 31 - Jun 14 rally / Low Jul 3           
• SUP 2: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 3: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 129.00 Round number support 

Bund futures are in consolidation mode. A bear threat remains present and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The move lower last week undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 130.28, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance is at 132.24, the Jun 28 high. A break would highlight a reversal.  

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bearish Theme Intact                                         

• RES 4: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger    
• RES 2: 116.920 High Jun 24     
• RES 3: 116.690 High Jun 28   
• RES 1: 116.215 20-day EMA            
• PRICE: 116.040 @ 05:36 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 115.530 Low Jul 5     
• SUP 2: 115.556 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally    
• SUP 3: 115.180 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 115.060 Low May 31 and key support 

The trend set-up in Bobl futures is unchanged and the contract is trading closer to its latest lows - a bearish condition remains in place. The move down last week resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and this undermines a recent bearish threat, signalling scope for a pullback towards 115.556 (pierced), a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 116.690, the Jun 28 high.            

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points South                            

• RES 4: 106.009 2.382 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 105.975 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger   
• RES 2: 105.895 High Jun 21       
• RES 1: 105.585/105.780 20-day EMA / High Jun 28 
• PRICE: 105.530 @ 05:44 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 105.390 Low Jul 5       
• SUP 2: 105.375 Low Jun 13 
• SUP 3: 105.314 76.4% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle  
• SUP 4: 105.175 Low Jun 7   

Schatz futures remain bearish following last week’s breach of support around the 20-day EMA, at 105.585. The move down undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation lower would open 105.314, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a developing bearish threat. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 105.780, the Jun 28 high. A break would be bullish.                     

GILT TECHS: (U4) Watching Resistance                                   

• RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 98.24/99.25 High Jun 28 / 1.236 proj May 29-Jun 4-10 swing
• RES 1: 98.11 High Jul 5 
• PRICE: 98.01 @ Close Jul 5 
• SUP 1: 96.96/96.57 Low Jul 3 / 1      
• SUP 2: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run      
• SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 95.33 Low May 29 and a key support   

Gilt futures traded higher last week. Despite these gains, the short-term outlook remains bearish. The sell-off from Jun 21, signals scope for a continuation near-term towards 96.25, a Fibonacci retracement, where a break would further strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 98.24, the Jun 28 high. A clear break of this level would be seen as a bullish development.  

BTP TECHS: (U4) Resistance Remains Intact For Now 

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.62 High Jun 5 and key resistance
• RES 1: 116.59/117.09 High Jul 5 / High Jun 21
• PRICE: 116.51 @ Close Jul 5
• SUP 1: 115.45 Low Jul 3   
• SUP 2: 114.72/35 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 11 and key support
• SUP 3: 114.02 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 113.60 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing

BTP futures have recovered from last Tuesday’s 114.72 low. Attention is on the bear reversal from the Jun 5 high that resulted in a break of key support at 115.54, the Apr 25 low. This continues to highlight a resumption of the downtrend and note that MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up. Sights are on 114.35, the Jun 11 low. Key resistance is 117.62, the Jun 5 high. Clearance of it would be bullish. Initial firm resistance to watch is 117.09, Jun 21 high.                       

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play     

• RES 4: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 5132.00 High Jun 6       
• RES 2: 5082.32 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off
• RES 1: 5057.00 High Jul 8   
• PRICE: 5011.00 @ 06:05 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 4903.00/4860.00 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 4800.00 Round number support   
• SUP 4: 4785.40 2.236 proj of the May 16 - Jun 4 - 6 price swing    

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week. Attention is on resistance at 5039.84, the 61.8% retracement of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off. It was pierced Friday, a clear break of it would be a positive development and suggest scope for an extension of the bull cycle that started Jun 14. This would open 5082.32, the 76.4% retracement point. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on 4846.00, Apr 19 low and a key support.     

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Northbound  

• RES 4: 5713.31 3.236 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 5700.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 5668.00 3.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5626.00 High Jul 5   
• PRICE: 5612.75 @ 07:24 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 5516.51/5419.65 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support 
• SUP 3: 5213.25 Low May 6
• SUP 4: 5155.75 Low May 3

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and Friday’s gains reinforce this set-up. Resistance at 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move higher last  week confirmed a recent bull flag formation - a continuation signal - on the daily scale, further reinforcing bullish conditions. Sights are on 5668.00, a Fibonacci projection next. Support is at 5516.51, the 20-day EMA.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U4) Bullish Theme             

• RES 4: $91.99 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing 
• RES 3: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $89.32 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $88.04 - High Apr 19    
• PRICE: $86.21 @ 07:04 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: $83.59 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $79.05/76.66 - Low Jun 7 / 4  
• SUP 3: $75.31 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.37 - Low Dec 13 and a key support  

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Fresh gains last week maintain the current bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows, signalling scope for an extension towards $89.32, the Apr 12 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would be seen as an important medium-term bullish development. Initial firm support to watch is $83.59, the 50-day EMA.   

WTI TECHS: (Q4) Key Resistance Remains Exposed                  

• RES 4: $90.78 - High Oct 20 2023 (cont)
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $85.27 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $84.52 - High Jul 5   
• PRICE: $82.70 @ 07:18 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: $79.52 50-day EMA    
• SUP 2: $74.94/72.44 - Low Jun 10 / 4
• SUP 3: $71.05 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $69.22 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support 

A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme. Note too that $82.24, 76.4% of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg, has been cleared. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. Sights are on $85.27, the Apr 12 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $79.52, the 50-day EMA.        

GOLD TECHS: Pierces Resistance      

• RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $2393.0 - High Jul 5               
• PRICE: $2383.00 @ 07:22 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: $2324.9/2286.9 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7       
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28  
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

Gold traded higher last week and the yellow metal has traded through resistance at $2387.8, the Jun 7 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and a clear break would be a bullish development and open the key resistance at $2450.1, the May 20 high. Initial support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 2324.9. A clear break of this average would instead confirm a resumption of the reversal from May 20 and expose $2277.4, May 3 low.    

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact For Now                   

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing        
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger               
• PRICE: $30.993 @ 08:17 BST Jul 8 
• SUP 1: $28.573- Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger               
• SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13  
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support  
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver has recovered from its recent lows and the metal is trading closer to last week’s high. The break of $30.853, the Jun 21 high, is a bullish development and undermines a recent bearish theme. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the key resistance and bull trigger at $32.518, the May 20 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger, lies at $28.573, the Jun 26 low.