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MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, October 23

MNI BRIEF: Inflation Down, Deficits Up - Bundesbank Report

MNI BRIEF: China To Reach Target of 5% GDP Growth - Lou Jiwei

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 3/6-Month ATB Auction on Tuesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Netherlands, UK, Germany Due Tues

BoC Data Watch

MNI BRIEF: Stabilizing Prices Helps BOC Turn Neutral-Freeland

MNI BRIEF: Canada Needs CAD1 Trln To Fix Housing Squeeze- CMHC

MNI BRIEF: Canada Shows No Progress Closing Housing Shortfall

BoE Peak Edges Back Above 6.00% On CPI; ECB Sept Hike Seen Above 50%

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BoE and ECB peak rate pricing both increased for the 3rd session in 3 this week, with the former leading the way higher once again.

  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing +4.3bp to 6.03% (78bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Mar 2023) Above-expected UK core CPI kept up the hawkish momentum in peak BoE pricing, which is now up 30bp since last Thursday and closed above 6.00% for the first time since July 18. Pricing for the next BoE meeting is for 32bp in hikes (around 30% prob of a 50bp raise vs 25bp), with 53bp cumulatively expected through the next two meetings.
  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +0.5bp to 3.96% (21bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023). Once again, ECB peak pricing remained relatively anchored, just below 4%, but edged higher for the 8th session in 9. More interestingly, September hike pricing ticked up today more than the terminal rate (+1bp), with a 25bp hike now more likely than not (about 55% probability).

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BoE and ECB peak rate pricing both increased for the 3rd session in 3 this week, with the former leading the way higher once again.

  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing +4.3bp to 6.03% (78bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Mar 2023) Above-expected UK core CPI kept up the hawkish momentum in peak BoE pricing, which is now up 30bp since last Thursday and closed above 6.00% for the first time since July 18. Pricing for the next BoE meeting is for 32bp in hikes (around 30% prob of a 50bp raise vs 25bp), with 53bp cumulatively expected through the next two meetings.
  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +0.5bp to 3.96% (21bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023). Once again, ECB peak pricing remained relatively anchored, just below 4%, but edged higher for the 8th session in 9. More interestingly, September hike pricing ticked up today more than the terminal rate (+1bp), with a 25bp hike now more likely than not (about 55% probability).