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BOE: Pill text due to be released at 8:55BST

BOE
Bank of EnglandCentral Bank NewsCEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

The text of BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill's speech at the Institute Chartered Accounts in England and Wales Annual conference with be published here at 8:55BST.

  • There will be increased focus on the speech given Governor Bailey's change of tone in his Guardian when he said that if the news on inflation continues to be good the MPC can be “bit more aggressive” and "a bit more activist".
  • Pill was the only internal MPC member to hawkishly dissent against August’s 25bp Bank Rate cut, instead favouring keeping rates on hold for longer.
  • He has not spoken on monetary policy since the September MPC meeting and ahead of Bailey's comments our main focus was going to be whether Pill adopted the "gradual" language introduced in the September meeting statement.
  • If Pill wants to remain rather non-committal he could use the word “gradual” – which as we have argued previously doesn’t really describe either quarterly or sequential cuts as it was used to describe the views of both members who voted for Bank Rate to be left on hold in September as well as by Dhingra in her rationale for voting for a cut.
  • However, now there will be increasing focus on whether Pill's views have evolved further and whether he echoes the language used by Bailey yesterday. Comments from both Mann and Greene recently have been more dovish (although nowhere near Bailey's rhetoric). We now see a chance Greene votes for a cut in November and although not our base case a chance that Mann also votes for a cut.
  • Any guidance from Pill on the pace or his willingness to vote for future cuts would be notable for markets. His vote for a November cut is unlikely to be needed, but question marks remain over December.
  • Markets currently fully price a November 25bp cut, price 42bp by year-end and 118bp by June (the peak intraday June pricing yesterday was above 125bp).
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The text of BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill's speech at the Institute Chartered Accounts in England and Wales Annual conference with be published here at 8:55BST.

  • There will be increased focus on the speech given Governor Bailey's change of tone in his Guardian when he said that if the news on inflation continues to be good the MPC can be “bit more aggressive” and "a bit more activist".
  • Pill was the only internal MPC member to hawkishly dissent against August’s 25bp Bank Rate cut, instead favouring keeping rates on hold for longer.
  • He has not spoken on monetary policy since the September MPC meeting and ahead of Bailey's comments our main focus was going to be whether Pill adopted the "gradual" language introduced in the September meeting statement.
  • If Pill wants to remain rather non-committal he could use the word “gradual” – which as we have argued previously doesn’t really describe either quarterly or sequential cuts as it was used to describe the views of both members who voted for Bank Rate to be left on hold in September as well as by Dhingra in her rationale for voting for a cut.
  • However, now there will be increasing focus on whether Pill's views have evolved further and whether he echoes the language used by Bailey yesterday. Comments from both Mann and Greene recently have been more dovish (although nowhere near Bailey's rhetoric). We now see a chance Greene votes for a cut in November and although not our base case a chance that Mann also votes for a cut.
  • Any guidance from Pill on the pace or his willingness to vote for future cuts would be notable for markets. His vote for a November cut is unlikely to be needed, but question marks remain over December.
  • Markets currently fully price a November 25bp cut, price 42bp by year-end and 118bp by June (the peak intraday June pricing yesterday was above 125bp).