STIR
A visualisation of the swings in BoE-dated OIS pricing through the end of ’24 in the time since the March MPC can be seen below.
- Pricing is comfortably off extremes, albeit a little closer to the hawkish boundary than the dovish boundary,
- BoE-dated OIS shows close to 25bp less easing through year end than at the close that followed the March MPC.
- Repricing surrounding the U.S. Fed has been a major factor, with sporadic activity surrounding UK data releases and a dovish round of commentary from BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden also seen in that window.
- Our full preview of the impending BoE decision can be found here.
- On Wednesday we suggested that a dovish BoE outcome probably presents the greatest risk to current market pricing, although the move away from recent hawkish extremes provides a little more balance to the risk profile heading into the decision (click for more).
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| May-24 | 5.196 | -0.4 |
| Jun-24 | 5.090 | -11.0 |
| Aug-24 | 4.958 | -24.2 |
| Sep-24 | 4.873 | -32.7 |
| Nov-24 | 4.754 | -44.6 |
| Dec-24 | 4.662 | -53.8 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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