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BoE Pricing Holding Off Friday's Most Dovish Levels, Alongside Global Peers

STIR

The broader tick away from Friday’s dovish session extremes in the wider core global STIR sphere is also seen in BoE-dated OIS, although the move is relatively contained.

Friday’s dovish move still didn’t put BoE pricing at/near November's dovish extremes.

  • BoE dove Dhingra offered little in the way of meaningful market moving comments during her late morning address.
  • Wider UK headline flow since Friday’s close has generally centred on politics, having little impact on the space/gilts.
  • BoE-dated OIS contracts covering ’24 MPC meetings are little changed to ~4bp firmer on the day, a little shy of hawkish session extremes.
  • ~71.5bp of easing is currently priced for '24 on the whole, with the first full cut not fully discounted until the end of the August MPC, although markets do price ~18.5bp of easing through the end of the June MPC.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Dec-235.206+1.7
Feb-245.224+3.5
Mar-245.180-0.9
May-245.100-8.9
Jun-245.005-18.4
Aug-244.870-31.9
Sep-244.744-44.5
Nov-244.596-59.3
Dec-244.473-71.6
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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