July 03, 2024 07:15 GMT
BoE Pricing Little Changed, Greater Than Even Odds Of Cut Still Priced For Aug
STIR
SONIA futures are 0.5 to 1.5 lower, with Bunds off overnight highs and a touch below levels seen at yesterday’s SONIA settlement window.
- BoE-dated OIS sticks to familiar territory, showing ~13.5bp of cuts for August and a cumulative ~41.5bp of easing through year end.
- Several final opinion polls point to a record majority for Labour, with the degree of that majority set to be the defining factor when it comes to Friday’s initial post-election reaction.
- Final services and composite PMI readings headline today’s UK calendar. That shouldn’t be a meaningful market mover, leaving leave focus on wider macro matters e.g. the ECB’s Sintra forum and U.S. data.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Aug-24 | 5.067 | -13.3 |
| Sep-24 | 5.004 | -19.6 |
| Nov-24 | 4.871 | -32.9 |
| Dec-24 | 4.787 | -41.4 |
| Feb-25 | 4.661 | -53.9 |
| Mar-25 | 4.578 | -62.2 |
| May-25 | 4.463 | -73.7 |
| Jun-25 | 4.386 | -81.4 |
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