BoE Pricing Little Changed, Greater Than Even Odds Of Cut Still Priced For Aug

SONIA futures are 0.5 to 1.5 lower, with Bunds off overnight highs and a touch below levels seen at yesterday’s SONIA settlement window.

• BoE-dated OIS sticks to familiar territory, showing ~13.5bp of cuts for August and a cumulative ~41.5bp of easing through year end.
• Several final opinion polls point to a record majority for Labour, with the degree of that majority set to be the defining factor when it comes to Friday’s initial post-election reaction.
• Final services and composite PMI readings headline today’s UK calendar. That shouldn’t be a meaningful market mover, leaving leave focus on wider macro matters e.g. the ECB’s Sintra forum and U.S. data.