March 13, 2025 07:47 GMT
STIR: BoE Pricing Not Straying From Well-Established Range
STIR
GBP STIRs little changed early today as Bunds unwind their Asia-Pac rally.
- BoE-dated OIS within 1bp of yesterday’s close, showing ~53bp of cuts through year-end, with 19bp of cuts showing through May and 24.5bp priced through June (we still look for a cut in May at this stage).
- SONIA futures +1.0 to -0.5.
- Little for the short end to go off outside of cross-market moves, with UK fiscal headlines continuing to focus on the need for further tightening given the erosion of already limited fiscal headroom since the Budget.
- Tomorrow’s monthly economic activity data provides the next domestic input of note.
- The BoE remains in its pre-meeting quiet period.
BoE Meeting |
SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)
Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Mar-25
4.460
+0.5
May-25
4.267
-18.7
Jun-25
4.211
-24.4
Aug-25
4.073
-38.2
Sep-25
4.035
-42.0
Nov-25
3.944
-51.0
Dec-25
3.923
-53.2
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