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BoE Pricing Soars Ahead Of UK CPI, ECB Steady

STIR

BoE terminal rate expectations rose the most since mid-April on Tuesday, by as much as 13bp to 5.13% to a fresh post-October 2022 high. Today's changes:

  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing +10.1bp to 5.11% (61bp of further hikes left in the cycle). Building on Monday's 3bp rise, Tuesday's sharp jump in terminal rate pricing came following a flash May Services PMI that was soft on the surface but more hawkish in the details. Also influencing weakness was anticipation of Wednesday's CPI release (Core seen steady at 6.2% Y/Y). Around 21bp of hikes remains priced for the June meeting.
  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +0.5bp to 3.79% (55bp of further hikes left in the cycle). As was the case in the UK, soft eurozone manufacturing PMIs were seen offset by more hawkish services data. German IFO is eyed Wednesday. 23bp remains the hike pricing for June's ECB decision.

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