April 30, 2024 06:51 GMT
BoE Pricing Steady Around 45bp Of '24 Cuts
STIR
GBP STIR markets are little changed early today. Firmer-than-expected French HICP data has resulted in a very modest move lower in SONIA futures.
- BoE-dated OIS shows ~45bp of ’24 cuts, with the first 25bp step still more than fully discounted through the end of the September MPC.
- Pricing for the Aug MPC has moved towards 85% odds of a 25bp cut.
- The rise in April’s UK BRC shop price data slowed again, registering the shallowest Y/Y uptick since ’21. This isn't a major market mover.
- Local data is lower tier on Tuesday, which will leave focus on EUR inflation data.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-24 | 5.202 | +0.2 |
Jun-24 | 5.114 | -8.6 |
Aug-24 | 4.991 | -20.9 |
Sep-24 | 4.922 | -27.8 |
Nov-24 | 4.819 | -38.1 |
Dec-24 | 4.748 | -45.2 |
131 words