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BoE Pricing Steady Around 45bp Of '24 Cuts

STIR

GBP STIR markets are little changed early today. Firmer-than-expected French HICP data has resulted in a very modest move lower in SONIA futures.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~45bp of ’24 cuts, with the first 25bp step still more than fully discounted through the end of the September MPC.
  • Pricing for the Aug MPC has moved towards 85% odds of a 25bp cut.
  • The rise in April’s UK BRC shop price data slowed again, registering the shallowest Y/Y uptick since ’21. This isn't a major market mover.
  • Local data is lower tier on Tuesday, which will leave focus on EUR inflation data.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.202+0.2
Jun-245.114-8.6
Aug-244.991-20.9
Sep-244.922-27.8
Nov-244.819-38.1
Dec-244.748-45.2
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GBP STIR markets are little changed early today. Firmer-than-expected French HICP data has resulted in a very modest move lower in SONIA futures.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~45bp of ’24 cuts, with the first 25bp step still more than fully discounted through the end of the September MPC.
  • Pricing for the Aug MPC has moved towards 85% odds of a 25bp cut.
  • The rise in April’s UK BRC shop price data slowed again, registering the shallowest Y/Y uptick since ’21. This isn't a major market mover.
  • Local data is lower tier on Tuesday, which will leave focus on EUR inflation data.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.202+0.2
Jun-245.114-8.6
Aug-244.991-20.9
Sep-244.922-27.8
Nov-244.819-38.1
Dec-244.748-45.2