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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessBoE Pricing Tilts In Favour Of No Further Hikes
BoE-dated OIS has also been happy to track the swings in wider core global FI markets, with the added input of domestic (partial) labour market data to pointed to continued loosening when looking at the internals (ONS methodology alterations muddy headlines comparable) and slightly firmer than expected (but still contractionary) manufacturing PMI data feeding in at different points.
- Elsewhere, the latest RTRS poll noted that “the BoE is likely done with policy tightening and will leave Bank Rate at 5.25% on Nov. 2, according to the vast majority of economists polled by Reuters” (61/73 look for no change in rates, with the remaining 12 looking for a 25bp hike). Still, the view that the hiking cycle is over comes with varying degrees of conviction, with the same poll noting that “16 of 28 who answered an additional question said the chance of another hike this year was high.”
- Liquid contracts last show 1.5-4.5bp softer on the day, with the strip flattening.
- That leaves ~3bp of tightening showing for the November MPC, with less than even odds of one further hike seen further out the strip (terminal policy rate pricing is ~11.5bp above prevailing levels) after this morning’s labour market data.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Nov-23 | 5.219 | +3.2 |
Dec-23 | 5.274 | +8.7 |
Feb-24 | 5.301 | +11.3 |
Mar-24 | 5.293 | +10.6 |
May-24 | 5.250 | +6.3 |
Jun-24 | 5.194 | +0.7 |
Aug-24 | 5.114 | -7.3 |
Sep-24 | 5.014 | -17.3 |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.