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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
The BoE-dated OIS curve has twist flattened after the initial steepening move that was seen as pricing nudged higher on the reaffirmation of the Bank’s pre-existing guidance verse and adjustments to the economic forecasts that were delivered alongside the widely expected 25bp rate hike, with spill over from broader market price action (centred on the latest round of U.S. regional Bank worry) evident, pushing the contracts back from session highs.
- In the post-meeting press conference Bailey stressed that the Bank “will be guided by the evidence, not giving directional steer on rates today. Difference in inflation to forecasts is mainly food and clothing. It appears to be taking longer for food price pressures to work through the system. These are unusual times and models need to be treated with caution.”
- When questioned on overtightening Bailey pointed to the evolution of the mortgage market towards fixed rate products, while noting that there is “still a lot of pass through to come. It is a very lively subject of debate in the MPC - there has to be quite a lot of judgment involved.”
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS Post-Press Conference (%) | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS Pre-Press Conference (%) | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS-Pre BoE (%) |
| May-23 | 4.426 | 4.428 | 4.434 |
| Jun-23 | 4.612 | 4.628 | 4.617 |
| Aug-23 | 4.762 | 4.797 | 4.769 |
| Sep-23 | 4.833 | 4.881 | 4.842 |
| Nov-23 | 4.829 | 4.885 | 4.837 |
| Dec-23 | 4.766 | 4.841 | 4.783 |
| Feb-24 | 4.662 | 4.749 | 4.689 |
| Mar-24 | 4.527 | 4.617 | 4.565 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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