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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Today's post-UK jobs market price action, and parade of BoE speakers, have effectively added a 25bp hike to the BoE's tightening cycle, now seen peaking in Feb 2024 at 5.85% (up 28bp on the day, and 135bp from current rates).
- That's higher and longer than previously expected - coming into today, the peak was seen arriving in Dec 2023. There's a chance seen of a 50bp hike this month (around 20% implied).
- While an impressive increase, it's not even the biggest single day move of the past month for peak rate pricing, which was the +33bp on May 24 following much stronger-than-expected April CPI data; that was followed up by +18bp on May 25.
- Meanwhile ECB policy is seen as much more predictable and peak hike pricing continues to effectively stand still: +1.5bp today to 3.80%, implying 56bp of further hikes in this cycle, including 96% probability of a quarter point raise this week (as seen in MNI's meeting preview).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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