STIR
BoE terminal rate pricing moderates a touch from intraday (and recent highs) with core global FI a little firmer after an initial round of Gilt cheapening, leaving terminal rate pricing just shy of 5.60% in BoE policy rate terms.
- We haven’t got anything in the way of meaningful UK event risk slated for today, which will mean that wider developments will be at the fore after a frenetic round of CPI-driven hawkish repricing over the past couple of sessions. Just under 110bp of tightening is now priced by the end of December, with market participants eying the elongated weekend.
- A quick reminder that late Thursday saw comments from BoE MPC member Haskel, who indicated his preference to lean against the risk of inflation, which means that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out (although he played down the idea that high levels of inflation are becoming embedded in the UK).
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Jun-23 | 4.758 | +33.1 |
| Aug-23 | 5.075 | +64.8 |
| Sep-23 | 5.318 | +89.1 |
| Nov-23 | 5.474 | +104.6 |
| Dec-23 | 5.500 | +107.2 |
| Feb-24 | 5.477 | +104.9 |
| Mar-24 | 5.424 | +99.6 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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