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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
The previously covered steepening of the BoE-dated OIS strip has gone further, with terminal rate pricing last showing just above 5.10% when adjusted for the BoE policy rate/SONIA differential, levels not seen since the time of former PM Truss.
- BoE Governor Bailey failed to move the needle in front of the Treasury Select Committee, leaving the hawkish undertones of the UK flash PMI data (which saw the survey collator note that “it's the far larger service sector that will typically dictate policy, meaning these survey results are nothing but hawkish”) in the driving seat.
- This leaves a much more hawkish market framing in play ahead of tomorrow's key CPI release, where the BBG survey median looks for a stepdown in the headline reading to 8.2% Y/Y vs. the 10.1% seen in March, alongside 6.2% Y/Y in the core metric, which would be in line with March's reading.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS At Close On 22 May '23 (%) |
| Jun-23 | 4.653 | 4.642 |
| Aug-23 | 4.850 | 4.814 |
| Sep-23 | 4.980 | 4.913 |
| Nov-23 | 5.034 | 4.940 |
| Dec-23 | 5.035 | 4.947 |
| Feb-24 | 4.995 | 4.901 |
| Mar-24 | 4.912 | 4.815 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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