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BOE: TSC: What have we learned about monpol today? (1/2)

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Some really interesting parts from the testimony to the Treasury Select Committe from four MPC members this morning.

  • Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor for Monpol Lombardelli both see risks to inflation as broadly balanced - but see greater consequences if inflation becomes more entrenched.
  • Bailey said that a month ago he was close to Taylor's view. Reading between the lines at the MPR press conference when he said that the Budget will not have significant impacts on monpol - it seems as though it hasn't impacted his central case significantly, but has changed his view of the balance of risks.
  • Lombardelli says we will get a lot more info on the labour market early next year.
  • Taylor could potentially be the second most dovish member now based on today's comments (after Dhingra). He has said that 100bp over the next year is consistent with "gradual" and that he sees risks that the BOE will need to cut more. We haven't heard from Ramsden for a while - we will hear from him tomorrow - so it will be interesting to see which of the two are more dovish.
  • Mann sounds as far away from a cut as ever - but that is nothing new - she has spoken multiple times recently.
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Some really interesting parts from the testimony to the Treasury Select Committe from four MPC members this morning.

  • Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor for Monpol Lombardelli both see risks to inflation as broadly balanced - but see greater consequences if inflation becomes more entrenched.
  • Bailey said that a month ago he was close to Taylor's view. Reading between the lines at the MPR press conference when he said that the Budget will not have significant impacts on monpol - it seems as though it hasn't impacted his central case significantly, but has changed his view of the balance of risks.
  • Lombardelli says we will get a lot more info on the labour market early next year.
  • Taylor could potentially be the second most dovish member now based on today's comments (after Dhingra). He has said that 100bp over the next year is consistent with "gradual" and that he sees risks that the BOE will need to cut more. We haven't heard from Ramsden for a while - we will hear from him tomorrow - so it will be interesting to see which of the two are more dovish.
  • Mann sounds as far away from a cut as ever - but that is nothing new - she has spoken multiple times recently.