MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Studies Remain in Downtrend
Price Signal Summary – AUD Studies Remain in Downtrend
- A sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract on Dec 18 highlights a short-term top and a corrective cycle. The move down resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of weakness would open 5811.65, 38.2% of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the recent move down highlights a corrective cycle and a short-term bear threat remains present - for now. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4922.49.
- A bearish trend structure in GBPUSD remains intact and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Key support at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low, was pierced on Friday. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and last week’s strong gains reinforce current conditions. The breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 high. The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too.
- Gold traded sharply lower on Dec 18. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards the key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- The current trend cycle in Bund futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and the contract is trading at its recent lows. 133.98, 61.8% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of this price point would signal scope for a move towards 133.22. A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move down has resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. The break of this level highlights a stronger reversal.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 2: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 1: 1.0501/0629 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 1.0442 @ 05:54 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: 1.0343 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.0335 Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
EURUSD has recovered off its recent lows, however, a bearish threat remains present. The move down last week paves the way for a test of key support at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of downtrend and open 1.0311, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0501, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Challenges Key Support
- RES 4: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.2961 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2811 High Dec 6 and a short-term bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.2670/1.2729 20-day EMA / High Dec 17
- PRICE: 1.2574 @ 06:05 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: 1.2476 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
- SUP 3. 1.2400 Round number support
- SUP 4: 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend
A bearish trend structure in GBPUSD remains intact and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Key support at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low, was pierced on Friday. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2446 next, the May 9 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance to monitor is 1.2811, the Dec 6 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 3: 0.8376 High Nov 19 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.8356 High Nov 27
- RES 1: 0.8319 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8301 @ 06:18 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 3: 0.8200 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.8188 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 - 19 price swing
EURGBP has recovered off its recent lows. Resistance at 0.8319, the 50-day EMA remains intact - for now. A clear breach of this EMA would undermine the bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. The trend direction remains down and support at 0.8225, the Dec 11 low, has recently been pierced. A clear break of it would open the major support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range.
USDJPY TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend
- RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj f the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 1: 157.93 High Dec 20
- PRICE: 156.61 @ 06:47 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 155.89/153.36 High Nov 20 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 152.13/150.90 50-day EMA / Low Dec 10
- SUP 3: 149.37 Low Dec 06
- SUP 4: 148.65 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and last week’s strong gains reinforce current conditions. The breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 153.36, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 3: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.21 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Dec 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 163.80 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 163.41 @ 07:05 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: 161.65/159.82 20-day EMA / Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 158.67 Low Dec 11
- SUP 3: 157.87 Low Dec 09
- SUP 4: 156.18 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
EURJPY is holding on to its recent gains and a bullish theme remains intact. The cross has traded through 162.48 the Dec 17 high, to confirm a resumption of the recovery that started on Dec 3. A continuation higher would signal scope for an extension towards 164.21, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Dec 3 bear leg. Key short-term support has been defined at 159.82, the Dec 18 low. A break of this level is required to signal a possible reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6491 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6382 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6253 @ 07:28 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6382, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4388 @ 07:53 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4192/4027 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4192, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Still Intact
- RES 4: 137.72 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 137.28 High Oct 2
- RES 2: 136.52/137.18 High Dec 6 / 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 135.02/136.01 20-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: 133.96 @ 05:30 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: 133.72 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2 133.62 Low Nov 22
- SUP 3: 133.22 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 132.95 Low Nov 18
The current trend cycle in Bund futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and the contract is trading at its recent lows. 133.98, 61.8% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of this price point would signal scope for a move towards 133.22, the 76.4% retracement level. First key resistance to watch is 135.02, the 20-day EMA. A move above this level would signal a possible reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 119.813 2.382 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 119.674 2.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 119.280/119.480 High Dec 4 and 5 / High Dec 2
- RES 1: 118.476/119.130 20-day EMA / High Dec 11
- PRICE: 118.060 @ 05:45 GMT Dec 21
- SUP 1: 117.850 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 117.723 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.550 Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: 117.350 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
The current bear cycle in Bobl futures remains in play. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA signalling scope for a continuation near-term. Recent weakness reinforces a bear theme. An extension would open 117.723 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The first key resistance to watch is 118.476, the 20-day EMA. A break of it would highlight a possible reversal and open 119.130, the Nov 7 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 107.365 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 107.250 Trend drawn from the Dec 3 high
- RES 2: 107.170 High Dec 20
- RES 1: 107.157 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 107.060 @ 05:57 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: 106.960 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 106.908 1.236 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.854 1.382 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.810 1.500 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
The current bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness reinforces this theme. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The 107.00 handle has been breached and this highlights potential for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 106.908 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 107.152, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a potential reversal.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Impulsive Bear Cycle Is Intact
- RES 4: 94.32 20-day EMA
- RES 3: 93.64 High Dec 17
- RES 2: 93.38 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 93.09 High Dec 21
- PRICE: 92.93 @ Close Dec 23
- SUP 1: 91.87 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 91.73 4.236 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 3: 91.58 4.382 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 4: 91.45 4.500 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move down has resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. The break of this level highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 91.73, a 4.236 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 93.64, the Dec 17 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Retracement Mode
- RES 4: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 122.85/123.34 High Dec 12 / 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 121.40 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 120.61 @ Close Dec 20
- SUP 1: 120.61 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 119.67 61.8% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 119.11 Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: 118.80 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
A corrective cycle in BTP futures has resulted in a pullback from its recent highs and the Dec 20 gap lower highlights potential for a continuation near-term. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and sights are on 119.67, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 121.40, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 5040.00 High Dec 9 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 5027 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 5002.00 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 4935.29 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 4894.00 @ 06:25 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: 4829.00 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 4800.87 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4775.00 Low Nvv 29
- SUP 4: 4727.00 Low Nov 21 and a key support
A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the recent move down highlights a corrective cycle and a short-term bear threat remains present - for now. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4922.49. The Dec 20 sell-off resulted in a print below 4846.57, 61.8% of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 bull cycle. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5040.00, the Dec 9 high. Initial resistance is at 4935.29, the 20-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Monitoring Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 6067.90 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 6050.75 High Dec 20
- PRICE: 6028.00 @ 07:26 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: 5866.00 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
A sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract on Dec 18 highlights a short-term top and a corrective cycle. The move down resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of weakness would open 5811.65, 38.2% of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg. Support at 5921.00, Nov 19 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial resistance is 6067.90, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would be a bullish development.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (G5) Still Looking For Weakness
- RES 4: $84.32 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.83 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $79.98/80.44 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $75.79 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $73.21@ 07:07 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: $69.95 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.52/67.89 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.70 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $64.34 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures continue to trade in a range. The outlook remains bearish and moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would open $69.52 the Oct 1 low, and $67.89, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clearer reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance at $79.98, the Oct 7 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $75.79, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (G5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $79.59 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $77.41 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $74.27/76.41 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $71.97 - High Nov 7
- PRICE: $69.78 @ 07:14 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: $66.01 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $65.57/63.73 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $62.85 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 5 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $71.97, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
- RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 1: $2642.9/2726.2 - 20-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: $2631.5 @ 07:21 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: $2583.6 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
Gold traded sharply lower on Dec 18. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards the key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position highlighting a medium-term uptrend and this suggests that the latest sell-off is likely a correction. Initial pivot resistance is $2642.9, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would be positive for bulls.
SILVER TECHS: Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $30.942/32.338 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: $29.774 @ 08:00 GMT Dec 21
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces the trend condition. The metal has breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.