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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
The move lower in the BoE's CPI projections and alteration in the vote split provide a contained dovish reaction for GBP STIRs, although the market pulls back from knee-jerk extremes.
- We suggested that the risk to market pricing likely laid with a dovish outcome ahead of the event.
- SONIA futures are now -0.75 to +4.5, with the back of the whites and front of the reds outperforming.
- BoE-dated OIS once again fully discounts a 25bp cut come the end of the August MPC, with ~58.5bp of cumulative cuts priced through ’24 vs.~54bp heading into the decision.
- June MPC pricing now shows ~12.5bp of cuts, or 50/50 odds of a cut come the end of the next MPC meeting.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| May-24 | 5.211 | +1.1 |
| Jun-24 | 5.074 | -12.6 |
| Aug-24 | 4.930 | -27.0 |
| Sep-24 | 4.841 | -35.9 |
| Nov-24 | 4.716 | -48.4 |
| Dec-24 | 4.615 | -58.5 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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