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BofA: Bearish On The 10-Year Sector

JGBS

Bank of America remain “fundamentally bearish on the 10-Year sector - both JGB and TONA (Tokyo overnight average rate) swap. The BoJ's next normalization step would be either another effective YCC rate hike or a YCC removal, which would be most negative for the 10-Year sector, with the super-long sector supported by lifers' demand and the shorter sector anchored by expectations for the lack of a proper tightening cycle. The BoJ's funds-supply operation poses downside risk to the yield curve near-term, but the recent correction in the 10-Year sector (JGB 0.39%, swap 0.74%) has tilted risk-reward to higher yields, in our view.”

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Bank of America remain “fundamentally bearish on the 10-Year sector - both JGB and TONA (Tokyo overnight average rate) swap. The BoJ's next normalization step would be either another effective YCC rate hike or a YCC removal, which would be most negative for the 10-Year sector, with the super-long sector supported by lifers' demand and the shorter sector anchored by expectations for the lack of a proper tightening cycle. The BoJ's funds-supply operation poses downside risk to the yield curve near-term, but the recent correction in the 10-Year sector (JGB 0.39%, swap 0.74%) has tilted risk-reward to higher yields, in our view.”