September 11, 2023 12:10 GMT
BofA: Exports - Green Shoots Or Just Base Effects?
Bank of America note that “Asia export data surprises have turned mildly positive, partly driven by better technology related exports.”
- “Is this any early sign of recovery in Asia's export cycle that could support Asia FX going into year-end?”
- “We suspect not, partly because of the offsetting impact of the recent rise in oil prices, but also some of the leading indicators for exports (China credit impulse, shipment-inventory, new export orders) are far from conclusive.”
- “We stay bearish Asia FX, especially TWD given positive carry, less policy risk and lifer flow dynamics.”