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JGB TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Trend Condition

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Price Sequence

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Off Recent Highs

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS

(Z1)‌‌ Support Appears Exposed

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In BofA's view of the July FOMC meeting, "Powell attempted to guide the markets toward the eventual taper but did so without sending a hawkish message. Seemingly there were lessons learned from the June meeting."

  • The messaging was that the next several meetings are "live" for a more explicit taper signal, with implementation shortly thereafter. "It is also possible that they shorten the timeline between the signal and start of the taper, pushing back the signal."
  • The pace of MBS vs Tsy tapering is still a debate.
  • Powell emphasized the distinct difference between the qualifications for tapering vs raising rates, "making it clear that liftoff isn't part of the conversation today."
  • Re standing repo facility: "if banks can use the SRF to make Treasuries convertible to cash intraday, this could support higher bank Treasury holdings over time."