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BofA See Year-End SNB Rate at 0%

SNB
  • Bank of America revise their call for Swiss National Bank policy and now see a 25bps hike in September and a further 50bps hike in December (taking the policy rate to 0%). They see recent communication from the SNB as an early attempt to prepare markets for policy adjustments.
  • Nonetheless, they don't think the SNB is in a rush to start a hiking cycle toward neutral or beyond. Given geopolitical and Euro area risks, paired with the domestic macro environment, they think it is more likely that the SNB moves less and/or later rather than earlier, faster and further.
  • They don't think the SNB is keen to exit all non-conventional policy tools, however. Discretionary FX interventions are likely to stick around. Risks from geopolitics or spread widening in the Euro area could quickly revive CHF pressures and force the SNB to intervene, again.
  • As such, they continue to think the FX target has shifted from CHF depreciation to the slowest possible appreciation.
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