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BofA: Uncertain Macro Outlook, Complacent Risk Pricing

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Bank of America write “credit markets price in relatively little in the way of macro risks. Euro sovereign spreads paint a similar picture.”

  • “We continue to see risks for BTP-Bund widening beyond 160bp, OATs trading soft into the budget and outperforming thereafter.
  • “GGB sensitivity to risk on/off regimes should remain lower than that of BTPs, making us continue to like them cross-market.”
  • “Irish bonds look 4bp rich after adjusting for directionality.”
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Bank of America write “credit markets price in relatively little in the way of macro risks. Euro sovereign spreads paint a similar picture.”

  • “We continue to see risks for BTP-Bund widening beyond 160bp, OATs trading soft into the budget and outperforming thereafter.
  • “GGB sensitivity to risk on/off regimes should remain lower than that of BTPs, making us continue to like them cross-market.”
  • “Irish bonds look 4bp rich after adjusting for directionality.”