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BofAML wrote the following on Tuesday:........>

FOREX
FOREX: BofAML wrote the following on Tuesday: "Commodity currencies are not a
good expression of bearish views on global growth for three (related) reasons:
1) median undervaluation is at its widest level since the financial crisis,
partly driven by 2) the search for yield as the median vol-adjusted USD carry
vs. commodity FX has reached the highest on record, in turn leading to 3) short
commodity FX positioning being at close to record levels. The natural
consequence of this has been the decline of the median skew for commodity FX to
historically low (absolute) levels, which optically makes commodity FX puts look
attractive as a hedge against global slowdown but in our view, accurately
reflects the fact that the downside tail-risk is well priced in. Our bias is to
be long commodity FX, currently expressed via NOK calls but a resolution of
US-China trade uncertainty would strengthen the case to buy AUD too."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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