Bolsonaro-Lula Spread Continues To Narrow As Elections Draw Closer

Bloomberg's Rachel Gamarski has reported that Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and President Jair Bolsonaro are 'technically tied' in a Brazil presidential election first round poll.

• The Futura Inteligencia poll commissioned by Modalmais brokerage, running a stimulated ballot with six candidates, shows Lula with 38.3% of voting intentions vs Bolsonaro with 35.3%.
• In a hypothetical second round runoff the same poll has Lula with 48.6% and Bolsonaro 41.6% - a 7 point margin.
• A PoderData poll released today gives Lula 41% of voting intentions in the first round and President Jair Bolsonaro has 32%.
• The PoderData poll shows Lula 50% and Bolsonaro 38% in a second round runoff. A slightly wider margin (12 points) than the Futura poll but still the narrowest of 2022 so far - in January, the difference was 22 points.
• The Brazilian general election will take place on October 2 and the spread could narrow further if the economy shows signs of post-Covid recovery.