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Free AccessBONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Bunds Gain On Lagarde Inflation "Confidence"
Gilts underperformed, as Bunds strengthened to start the week.
- Curves bear flattened early on, with German state-level inflation if anything on the dovish side of expectations. But European bonds sold off regardless, which was seen as the result of overly-dovish positioning going into the releases.
- Core EGBs rallied sharply in early afternoon on ECB President Lagarde's commentary that the latest inflation developments "strengthen our confidence" and "we will take that into account" at the October meeting. MNI published an ECB sources piece titled "Chances of October ECB Cut At Least 50-50" (link here).
- The UK curve bear flattened on the day, with Germany's leaning bull flatter as implied October ECB cut pricing touched 92%, compared to 20% at the start of last week.
- Periphery EGB spreads widened modestly as European equities reversed Friday's gains.
- BoE's Greene speaks after the cash close. Tuesday's agenda includes Euro flash HICP (MNI is tracking a 1.7% Y/Y figure), final manufacturing PMIs, and ECB speakers including Nagel, Rehn and de Guindos.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.8bps at 2.068%, 5-Yr is down 0.5bps at 1.947%, 10-Yr is down 1bps at 2.123%, and 30-Yr is down 0.7bps at 2.459%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 4.3bps at 3.983%, 5-Yr is up 3.6bps at 3.86%, 10-Yr is up 2.6bps at 4.003%, and 30-Yr is up 0.9bps at 4.584%.
- Italian BTP spread up 1.1bps at 133bps / Spanish up 1.1bps at 80.3bps
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.