October 16, 2024 16:52 GMT
BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: UK Curve Bull Steepens On Low CPI Surprise
BONDS
Gilts easily outperformed Bunds in a broad rally for global government bonds Wednesday as UK CPI came in below expectations.
- UK September core and headline Y/Y CPI each came in 0.2pp low vs consensus Services CPI came in 0.58ppt below the BOE's August projections, and while this was largely driven by airfares and hotel prices, even excluding those categories services inflation was still marginally weaker than the BOE's forecast.
- That resulted in about 12bp in BoE cuts added to the profile through September 2025 on the day and set a constructive tone for the session, with a continued pullback in oil prices and European equities following Tuesday's rout helping underpin the fixed income space in the afternoon.
- Both the UK and German curves bull steepened, though the former move was more pronounced as 2Y UK yields saw their biggest drop since early August.
- Periphery EGB spreads mostly tightened, coming in from early wides as ECB cut pricing increased (7bp more priced through the next year).
- The ECB is Thursday's highlight - MNI's preview is here (PDF) - while a 25bp cut is expected and priced in, communicating the motivation for such a move will not be straightforward.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 4.1bps at 2.17%, 5-Yr is down 4.1bps at 2.042%, 10-Yr is down 3.8bps at 2.184%, and 30-Yr is down 3.5bps at 2.479%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 11.1bps at 4.019%, 5-Yr is down 10.7bps at 3.926%, 10-Yr is down 9.8bps at 4.064%, and 30-Yr is down 8.6bps at 4.592%.
- Italian BTP spread down 1.3bps at 122.6bps / Greek down 1.7bps at 88.6bps
Keep reading...Show less
267 words