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BONDS: NZGBS: Bull-Flattens, Tracking US Tsys

BONDS

NZGBs closed showing a bull-flattener, with benchmark yields 1-3bps lower. With the domestic calendar light again, the local market has simply tracked developments abroad. 

  • Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest haven demand-induced gains.
  • NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials closed unchanged.
  • Westpac has upgraded its milk price forecast. This follows the solid auction overnight.  "We have increased our farmgate milk price forecast for this season to $10.00/kg (previously $9.00/kg).  This would be a new record milk price in dollar terms, though not after adjusting for inflation or the trend increase in farmers’ costs. Chinese buyers are facing a substantial challenge to rebuild their stocks of milk powders in particular.
  • Swap rates closed flat to 1bp lower, with the implied short-end swap spread wider.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed slightly softer. A cumulative 93bps of easing is priced by February, with 52bps by year-end.
  • The local calendar is light for the remainder of the week. The next key release will be Q3 Retail Sales ex Inflation on Monday.
  • Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$200mn of the 3.0% Apr-29 bond, NZ$225mn of the 2.0% May-32 bond and NZ$75mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.
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