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BONDS: NZGBS: Closed At Bests, US Tsys Rally After US Pres. Debate

BONDS

NZGBs closed at session highs, with benchmark yields down 5-6 basis points. 

  • However, the NZ 10-year bond has underperformed relative to its US counterpart, pushing the NZ-US 10-year yield differential up by 3bps to +53bps. This marks the highest level since March and a 40bp increase from late July, when the differential hit its lowest point since mid-2021.
  • Cash US tsys are 2-3bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s bull-steepener. The US presidential debate saw betting odds nudged in favour of Harris. The US market now focuses on tomorrow’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI inflation measures. Core non-housing service inflation is expected to see at least a repeat of the 0.21% M/M from July.
  • Outside of the previously outlined Net Migration data, there wasn't much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
  • Swap rates closed 6-7bps lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-6bps softer across meetings, with mid-2025 leading. A cumulative 80bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Food Prices and Card Spending data.
  • The NZ Treasury also plans to sell NZ$300mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond, NZ$150mn of the 4.50% May-35 bond and NZ$50mn of the 2.75% Apr-37 bond.
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