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BONDS: NZGBS: Closed On A Weak Note, PMI & Food Prices Weigh

BONDS

NZGBs closed on a weak note, with benchmark yields 4-6bps higher. 

  • NZGBs underperformed compared to their $-bloc counterparts, with the NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield spreads widening by 4-5bps.
  • This underperformance likely stems from a combination of factors, including a rebound in the PMI, the largest annual increase in food prices since February, and continued selling pressure following yesterday's announcement of a larger-than-expected budget deficit.
  • “New Zealand's annual inflation is poised to return to the central bank's target band for the first time in nearly three years in the September quarter, but the so-called "disinflation progress" is more driven by global factors than by recent domestic monetary tightening, ANZ Research said in a Friday report.” (per MT Newswires)
  • Swap rates closed 5-6bps higher.
  • RBNZ-dated OIS pricing closed 5-14bps softer across meetings out to Apr- 2025 versus pre-RBNZ levels, despite today's 2-5bps firming. 52bps of easing is priced in for November (4.23%), with a cumulative easing of 90bps for February 2025 (3.85%) and 147bps for July 2025 (3.28%).
  • On Monday, the local calendar will see the Performance Services Index and Card Spending Total data as well as a speech by RBNZ Governor Orr on Maori Access to Capital.
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NZGBs closed on a weak note, with benchmark yields 4-6bps higher. 

  • NZGBs underperformed compared to their $-bloc counterparts, with the NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield spreads widening by 4-5bps.
  • This underperformance likely stems from a combination of factors, including a rebound in the PMI, the largest annual increase in food prices since February, and continued selling pressure following yesterday's announcement of a larger-than-expected budget deficit.
  • “New Zealand's annual inflation is poised to return to the central bank's target band for the first time in nearly three years in the September quarter, but the so-called "disinflation progress" is more driven by global factors than by recent domestic monetary tightening, ANZ Research said in a Friday report.” (per MT Newswires)
  • Swap rates closed 5-6bps higher.
  • RBNZ-dated OIS pricing closed 5-14bps softer across meetings out to Apr- 2025 versus pre-RBNZ levels, despite today's 2-5bps firming. 52bps of easing is priced in for November (4.23%), with a cumulative easing of 90bps for February 2025 (3.85%) and 147bps for July 2025 (3.28%).
  • On Monday, the local calendar will see the Performance Services Index and Card Spending Total data as well as a speech by RBNZ Governor Orr on Maori Access to Capital.