MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/CAD Winning Streak Extends
Price Signal Summary – USD/CAD Winning Streak Extends
- A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow pullback still appears to be a correction. Price is trading closer to its recent highs. MA studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Eurostoxx 50 futures finished Wednesday trade well, but next resistance remains out of reach for now at the September highs. Key short-term support to watch is 4934.85, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
- USDCAD extended the winning streak of higher highs and higher lows to six consecutive sessions on Thursday - confirming an extension of the bull cycle that started Sep 25. EURJPY is holding on to its recent gains and remains above the 50-day EMA, at 161.70. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 163.49, the Sep 27 high (pierced), and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. The GBPUSD outlook deteriorated further Thursday, driven by the broad USD rally - maintaining the softer short-term tone. Cable has breached support at the 20-day EMA and pierced both the 50-day EMA at 1.3108 and 1.3049, a Fibonacci retracement.
- The latest short-term retracement in Gold is considered corrective. The trend condition is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. WTI futures traded higher Monday as the pair extended the rally that started Oct 1. Tuesday’s reversal is for now, considered corrective. Recent gains suggest potential for a continuation higher near-term.
- Bund futures broke lower, piercing support, on Thursday. This extends the weakness posted off the move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and undermines a recent bullish outlook. A continuation would further strengthen a developing bearish threat. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. The Oct 4 impulsive sell-off, and this week’s move lower, reinforces a bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Sensitive to Downside
- RES 4: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 3: 1.1214/34 High Sep 25 / 1.618 proj Jun 26-Jul 17-Aug 1 swing
- RES 2: 1.1043/1144 20-day EMA / High Oct 1
- RES 1: 1.1029 50-Day EMA
- PRICE: 1.0940 @ 07:58 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: 1.0910 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 1.0909 Low Aug 9
- SUP 3: 1.0881 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0778 Low Aug 1
EURUSD broke lower Thursday in response to the higher CPI print and, while the move was largely pared, puts the price on a weaker footing. Support at 1.1002, the Sep 11 low, has been breached. This level marks the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern on the daily chart. The break lower strengthens a bearish theme, with the show below Fibonacci support at 1.0945 a further signal of weakness. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1043, the 20-day EMA. First resistance is at 1.1029, the 50-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Support Breached
- RES 4: 1.3434 High Sep 26 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 2: 1.3305 High Oct 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3193 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3052 @ 08:00 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: 1.3049 50.0% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 2: 1.3022 Low Oct 10
- SUP 3: 1.3002 Low Sep 11
- SUP 4: 1.2959 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
The GBPUSD outlook deteriorated further Thursday, driven by the broad USD rally - maintaining the softer short-term tone. Cable has breached support at the 20-day EMA and pierced both the 50-day EMA at 1.3108 and 1.3049, a Fibonacci retracement. A clear break of this level would expose 1.3002, the Sep 11 low. Initial resistance to watch is 1.3180, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8453 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.8434 High Oct 3
- PRICE: 0.8381 @ 08:05 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: 0.8353/11 Low Oct 4 / 1 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
The Oct 3 rally in EURGBP highlights a possible reversal. Note that the cross is trading close to the base of its 0.9300 - 0.8300 multi-year range and a key area of support. For now, moving average studies are unchanged and remain in a bear-mode position - this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Key support is at 0.8311, the Oct 1 low. Key resistance is 0.8464, the Sep 11 high and a reversal trigger. First resistance to watch is 0.8434, Oct 23 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 153.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.94 Low Jul 25
- RES 2: 150.76 50.0% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 149.55 High Oct 10
- PRICE: 148.77 @ 08:07 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: 145.65 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 141.65 Low Sep 30
- SUP 3: 140.45 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 139.58 Low Sep 16 and the bear trigger
USDJPY rallied further Tuesday to trade at new highs and a bull cycle remains in play. Recent gains resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA, a bullish development that undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 150.76, the 50% retracement for the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg. Initial firm support is 145.93, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal.
EURJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 163.89 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 163.61 High Oct 10
- PRICE: 162.73 @ 08:08 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: 161.29 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 158.11/155.15 Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is holding on to its recent gains and remains above the 50-day EMA, at 161.70. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 163.49, the Sep 27 high (pierced), and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. Clearance of both levels would highlight a potential reversal. For now, trend signals are bearish and gains are still considered corrective. A reversal lower and a resumption of bearish price action would open 154.42, Aug 5 low and the bear trigger.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6984 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6942 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6889 High Oct 3
- RES 1: 0.6790 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6733 @ 08:10 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: 0.6702 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 0.6646 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6576 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
The latest pullback in AUDUSD highlights a short-term corrective cycle and for now, a bearish theme remains intact. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average, at 0.6750, would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.6622, the Sep 11 low and a key support. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 0.6942, the Sep 30 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Winning Streak Extends
- RES 4: 1.3885 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.3822 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3791 High Aug 7
- RES 1: 1.3775 High Oct 10
- PRICE: 1.3765 @ 08:11 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: 1.3587 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3473/3420 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3413 Low Feb 9
- SUP 4: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 ‘23 - Aug 5 bull run
USDCAD extended the winning streak of higher highs and higher lows to six consecutive sessions on Thursday - confirming an extension of the bull cycle that started Sep 25. The move higher this week has resulted in a break of 1.3647, the Sep 19 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level signals a possible reversal, which firms through 1.3791, the Aug 7 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3587, the 20-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 137.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 136.20 High Oct 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 135.24 High Oct 3
- RES 1: 133.90/134.19 50- and 20-day EMA values
- PRICE: 133.51 @ 07:01 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: 132.83 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 2: 132.75 Low Oct 10
- SUP 3: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: 132.25 Low Jul 29
Bund futures broke lower, piercing support, on Thursday. This extends the weakness posted off the move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and undermines a recent bullish outlook. A continuation would further strengthen a developing bearish threat. This would open 132.65, the Sep 2 low. Initial resistance is at 134.29, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Clears Support
- RES 4: 120.650 High Oct 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: 120.190 High Oct 3
- RES 2: 119.870 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 119.350/119.520 High Oct 7 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.050 @ 07:03 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: 118.620 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 117.789 123.6% retrace projection of the Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull leg
Bobl futures are trading at their recent lows. The reversal from the Oct 1 high, undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The contract has traded through a number of short-term retracement points and has breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would open 118.580, the Sep 3 low. Initial resistance is 119.520, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Breaking Down
- RES 4: 107.450 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 107.225/335 High Oct 3 / 1 and key resistance
- RES 2: 107.110 High Oct 7
- RES 1: 106.930 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 106.755 @ 07:12 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: 106.580 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 106.458 100-dma
- SUP 3: 105.874 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 105.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
A short-term bearish threat is firming further in Schatz futures following the extended reversal from the Oct 1 high. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and breached not only 106.815, the Sep 18 low, but also 106.712, a key Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 106.930, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would signal a possible reversal.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 100.00 High Sep 23
- RES 3: 99.47 High Oct and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 98.33 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 96.93/98.11 High Oct 7 / Low Sep 2
- PRICE: 96.13 @ Close Oct 10
- SUP 1: 95.83 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 95.58 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 95.47 1.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 94.99 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. The Oct 4 impulsive sell-off, and this week’s move lower, reinforces a bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. The break strengthens the downtrend, signalling scope for a deeper retracement. 96.23, projection support, and the 96.00 handle have now given way, exposing the 2.0% 10-dma envelope line at 95.58. Initial firm resistance is seen at 98.11, the Sep 2 low.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Has Breached The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 123.40 3.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 121.67/122.62 High Oct 3 / 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.67 @ 07:21 BST
- SUP 1: 120.17 Low Sep 19
- SUP 2: 119.58 38.2% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 117.34 Low Jul 26
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures is bullish. However, a short-term bearish threat exists for now, following the reversal from the Oct 1 high. This move down highlights a corrective cycle. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower opens 120.17, the Sep 19 low and the next important support. A break of this support would expose 119.58, a Fibonacci retracement. The bull trigger is 122.62, the Oct 1 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5048.00/5106.00 High Oct 1 / High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 4997.00 @ 07:24 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: 4934.85 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4848.00/4757.00 Low Sep 13 / Low Sep 6 and 10
- SUP 3: 4813.00 Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures finished Wednesday trade well, but next resistance remains out of reach for now at the September highs. Key short-term support to watch is 4934.85, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Recently, the contract breached resistance at 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme. Key resistance and bull trigger is 5106.00, the Sep 30 high.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 5900.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5868.50 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: 5854.15 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 1: 5846.50 High Oct 09
- PRICE: 5828.25 @ 07:32 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: 5759.36/5724.00 20-day EMA / Low Oct 2
- SUP 2: 5686.59 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 5451.25 Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow pullback still appears to be a correction. Price is trading closer to its recent highs. MA studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5868.50, a Fibonacci projection, and 5900.00 further out. Initial support to watch is 5759.36, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced. Key support lies at 5686.59 the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Z4) Short-Term Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $86.86 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $85.54 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $83.02 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $81.47 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- PRICE: $78.77 @ 07:36 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: $75.47 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $69.91/68.29 - Low Oct 1 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $67.73 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $66.12 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures traded sharply higher last week and again Monday. The rally extends the bull leg that started Sep 9 and suggests that the pullback beginning Tuesday is - for now - a correction. A resumption of gains would open $81.47, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and expose $83.02, the Jul 18 high. Initial firm support is $75.47, the 20-day EMA. A clear break would be seen as an early reversal signal.
WTI TECHS: (X4) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $82.59 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.75 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $79.69 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $78.46 - High Oct 8
- PRICE: $75.28 @ 07:37 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: $71.99 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $66.33/64.61 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.89 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures traded higher Monday as the pair extended the rally that started Oct 1. Tuesday’s reversal is for now, considered corrective. Recent gains suggest potential for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is on $77.40, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is $71.99, the 20-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Upside Argument Returns
- RES 4: $2708.4 - 2.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2720.5 - 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2690.2 - 2.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2640.8 @ 07:38 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: $2616.3/2604.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 8
- SUP 2: $2584.9 - Low Sep 20
- SUP 3: $2552.9 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
The latest short-term retracement in Gold is considered corrective. The trend condition is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $2690.2, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $2616.3, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Phase
- RES 4: $33.738 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $33.297 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $31.778/32.963 - High Oct 8 / 4 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $31.098 @ 07:51 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: $30.206 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $29.489 - Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 and a key support
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. Attention turns to support at the 50-day EMA, at $30.206. A clear break of this EMA would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a reversal higher would signal the end of the correction and refocus attention on $32.963, the Oct 4 high.