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BONDS: NZGBS: Little Changed, Subdued Start To A Busy Week In The US

BONDS
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NZGBs closed little changed after dealing in narrow ranges in today’s session. There were no cash US tsy dealings in today’s Asia-Pac session with Japan out for a public holiday. US tsy futures are however stronger, with TYZ4 at 110-13, +0-12 compared to NY closing levels. 

  • Swap rates closed 1-3bps lower, with the 2s10s curve steeper and implied swap spreads tighter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 2bps softer across meetings. A cumulative 97bps of easing is priced by February, with 55bps by year-end.
  • The local calendar was quiet today, with attention turning to tomorrow’s release of the RBNZ Financial Stability Report.
  • Also tomorrow, the RBA will announce its policy decision. While the cash rate is unanimously expected to remain at 4.35%, the meeting statement will be closely analysed for any shifts in tone. A dovish interpretation may arise if the forecasts suggest that underlying inflation could hit the target sooner than the current expectation of Q4 2025.
  • Looking further ahead, the U.S. Presidential Election takes place on Tuesday, followed by an unusual Thursday FOMC decision amid an otherwise light U.S. economic calendar.
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NZGBs closed little changed after dealing in narrow ranges in today’s session. There were no cash US tsy dealings in today’s Asia-Pac session with Japan out for a public holiday. US tsy futures are however stronger, with TYZ4 at 110-13, +0-12 compared to NY closing levels. 

  • Swap rates closed 1-3bps lower, with the 2s10s curve steeper and implied swap spreads tighter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 2bps softer across meetings. A cumulative 97bps of easing is priced by February, with 55bps by year-end.
  • The local calendar was quiet today, with attention turning to tomorrow’s release of the RBNZ Financial Stability Report.
  • Also tomorrow, the RBA will announce its policy decision. While the cash rate is unanimously expected to remain at 4.35%, the meeting statement will be closely analysed for any shifts in tone. A dovish interpretation may arise if the forecasts suggest that underlying inflation could hit the target sooner than the current expectation of Q4 2025.
  • Looking further ahead, the U.S. Presidential Election takes place on Tuesday, followed by an unusual Thursday FOMC decision amid an otherwise light U.S. economic calendar.