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BONDS: NZGBS: Richer With US Tsys Ahead Of US Thanksgiving Holiday

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 3bps richer, with the 2/10 curve flatter, after US tsy yields finished 3-5bps lower on the day, with declines led by 7s following a strong auction. 

  • Yesterday’s US data deluge was mixed but ultimately quite close to consensus.
  • RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk, Chief Economist Conway and Deputy Governor Hawkesby have been in front of parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee after yesterday’s 50bp cut. Silk said RBNZ is “very confident” it can cut rates further early in 2025 if the economy develops as anticipated.
  • When asked about incoming US President Trump's tariff policies, Silk said, “Tariffs generally are not a good thing.” Conway said, “We haven’t formally modelled any of the potential impacts of President-elect Trump coming back.”
  • Swap rates are 4-5bps lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps softer across meetings. 42bps of easing is priced for February, with 101bps by October 2025.
  • NZ filled jobs fell 0.1% m/m in October versus a revised -0.1% in September.
  • The local calendar will also see ANZ Business Confidence today.
  • Today, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 3.0% Apr-29 bond, NZ$175mn of the 3.5% Apr-33 bond and NZ$75mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.
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In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 3bps richer, with the 2/10 curve flatter, after US tsy yields finished 3-5bps lower on the day, with declines led by 7s following a strong auction. 

  • Yesterday’s US data deluge was mixed but ultimately quite close to consensus.
  • RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk, Chief Economist Conway and Deputy Governor Hawkesby have been in front of parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee after yesterday’s 50bp cut. Silk said RBNZ is “very confident” it can cut rates further early in 2025 if the economy develops as anticipated.
  • When asked about incoming US President Trump's tariff policies, Silk said, “Tariffs generally are not a good thing.” Conway said, “We haven’t formally modelled any of the potential impacts of President-elect Trump coming back.”
  • Swap rates are 4-5bps lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps softer across meetings. 42bps of easing is priced for February, with 101bps by October 2025.
  • NZ filled jobs fell 0.1% m/m in October versus a revised -0.1% in September.
  • The local calendar will also see ANZ Business Confidence today.
  • Today, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 3.0% Apr-29 bond, NZ$175mn of the 3.5% Apr-33 bond and NZ$75mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.