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BONDS: Thursday PMI and Wage Data In Focus As Post Canada-CPI Rally Stalls

BONDS

EGBs will likely be dictated by broader swings in market sentiment until Thursday, when the regional data calendar picks up with flash PMIs and negotiated wage data.

  • Growth data have been in focus since the ECB’s July decision, where President Lagarde emphasised downside risks to activity data. Most recently, in comments yesterday evening, Bank of Finland Governor Rehn noted that growth risks were key to his endorsement of a September rate cut.
  • The July flash PMI was weaker than expected, with new orders marking a second successive fall and business confidence falling to a six-month low. 
  • We have previewed the negotiated wages data here: https://marketnews.com/eurozone-data-wide-range-of-estimates-for-q2-negotiated-wages-on-thursday
  • The post-Canadian CPI rally in Bunds stalled at 134.54, with futures currently +36 at 134.51. 
  • Gilt futures have seen similar price action, but continue to underperform German counterparts, currently +12 at 99.81. The 10-year Gilt/Bund spread has thus widened 2.5bps to 170bps today.
  • Thursday’s flash PMI is also the next major UK macro release scheduled, with only public finance data due tomorrow.
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