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EUROZONE DATA
The ECB’s measure of Q2 negotiated wage growth is due on Thursday. We have seen a wide range of estimates for the release, but on balance think a reading with a 3-handle would be considered a dovish outcome relative to expectations. However, the intraday market reaction will also be influenced by spillover from Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and the August flash PMIs due Thursday morning.
- Negotiated wage growth is expected to moderate from the 4.7% Y/Y reading in Q1, but the range of analyst expectations that we have seen is extremely wide.
- Estimates have ranged from 3.5% Y/Y to 4.5% Y/Y, making it hard to gauge a true “consensus” for the release.
- However, the ECB’s June projections noted that “Negotiated wage growth is seen to increase slightly in 2024, before easing gradually”.
- As such, a reading below 4% would represent a notable deceleration from Q1’s levels and seemingly the ECB’s expectations.
- See below for a selection of analyst views on the release:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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